Data Highlights: October 2009
In October 2009, the New York State Department of Labor's Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (ICEI) for New York State decreased at an annual rate of 2.3%. This follows a 1.7% annual decrease in September 2009. Over the past year, the ICEI has declined by 3.3%.

Historical ICEI Data
Historical data (1970-present) -- (Excel file)
Historical data with recession period shading (1970-present) -- (Figure)

E-mail Notification Service
If you would like to be notified by e-mail each month when the New York State Department of Labor's Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (ICEI) is updated, please e-mail the Division of Research and Statistics to be added to our distribution list.

Background
The New York State Department of Labor's Division of Research and Statistics calculates and publishes a monthly composite index of business cycle indicators. More formally known as the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (ICEI), the Index is the equivalent of a weather report for the state's economy - it is designed to provide reliable and timely information about current economic conditions in New York State.

The ICEI does not predict how the state's economy may be performing in the future; that would be the job of an Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which forecasts economic conditions approximately 12 months into the future. Backtesting of almost 40 years' worth of data found that when the ICEI initially declined for five consecutive months, the New York State economy was always entering a recession.

The ICEI model combines and weights four key indicators of statewide economic activity, which have historically moved in conjunction with the state's business cycles:

• private sector employment
• unemployment rate
• average weekly hours of manufacturing workers
• sales tax collections

The first three indicators of statewide economic activity are estimated each month by the New York State Department of Labor. Monthly sales tax data are released by the New York State Department of Taxation and Finance and are then adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index. In turn, all four economic indicators are adjusted for seasonal variation using procedures developed by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Past Recessions in New York State
The table below presents the business cycle dates -- including the starting (peak) and ending (trough) months -- for recessions occurring in the nation (as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research) and in New York State (as defined by the department's Index of Coincident Economic Indicators) since 1970.

Over the last 40 years, there have been seven distinct recessions (including the current economic downturn) in the U.S. and New York State. Recessions in New York have tended to be significantly longer than their national counterparts. This trend has become more pronounced over the past 20 years. The last three recessions in New York State (dating back to 1981) have averaged more than 2½ years in length, while the last three national recessions have averaged less than one year in duration.

Comparison of U.S. and New York State Recessions

Technical Notes
For more information concerning the New York State Department of Labor's monthly Index of Coincident Economic Indicators, see Technical Notes.